The US 2024 presidential election is going to be the most dynamic campaign ever. In this election season, issues such as the economy, healthcare, and social justice are going to top the agenda. In this article, we are going to dive deep into the expected electoral map, key battleground states, and factors that will influence voter turnout.
Understanding the electoral map
Therefore, an electoral map aims to visually illustrate the potential influence of states on elections. Each state has its population and, therefore, an electoral vote. To secure the presidency, each contestant needs to garner a majority of the 538 electoral votes.
Traditionally, California, Texas, and Florida were significant because of their strong electoral votes. The other states have fewer electoral votes but may be pivotal in close elections.
Battleground States
Some states are considered battleground states when evaluating the electoral map.
Pennsylvania: It’s safe to say that the Keystone State heavily gerrymandered its votes. The state consistently splits its votes between the two parties during elections. Philadelphia, with its diverse population and cities, will significantly influence the outcome.
Wisconsin is known for its unpredictable voting behavior. Democrats and Republicans use Wisconsin as a battleground when presenting and addressing various issues. Agriculture, manufacturing, and healthcare will determine the outcome on either side.
The demographic changes and the growth in its population make the state of Arizona one with growing significance in the nation. Latino voters’ increased political clout may have enough potential to flip this election in unusual ways.
Georgia still remains a battleground for parties, after the former flipped its color in the 2020 election. Young, the minority, has been actively participating in voting so far, which underscores the importance of closely monitoring this state.
Michigan, a traditional Democratic state, faces significant economic issues, particularly the decline in manufacturing and labor rights, which could potentially influence the state’s electoral votes.
Voter Turnout Determinants
The following factors are likely to affect voter turnout in 2024:
Youth Voter Participation: Youths, particularly 18-29-year-olds, have been registering increasingly higher levels of participation in the polls. Issues such as climate change, education, and employment prospects are strong resonators among this demographic.
Voter Suppression: In other states, legislation that suppresses voters could potentially alter the electoral landscape. Voters must be aware of and express their concerns about the legislation that hinders their ability to vote fairly.
Social Media Impact: Undoubtedly, social media dictates the public’s opinion. The campaigns operating on social media applications like TikTok, Twitter, or Instagram would touch the hearts of more young voters.
Economic Factors: As people start to express concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, politicians will seek to implement economic policies that will resonate with the electorate.
Electoral map predictions
Given the current political climate, experts predict a highly competitive race in this electoral map. Analysts predict a slight lean from Florida and North Carolina toward Republicans, but still, New York and California remain Democratic lands.
However, the states mentioned above will be battlegrounds. If Democrats can get the young and minority voters to the polls, they will retain the swing states. If Republicans can mobilize their base and attract independent voters, they will take back the territories they lost.
Conclusion
The presidential elections in 2024 mark an important milestone in America’s politics. Voter turnout will indeed be decisive when the electoral map is slowly evolving, and some critical issues remain on the table. As candidates intensify their campaign efforts in the battleground states that will determine the president of the new republic, voter engagement and understanding their concerns, along with strategies to address these issues, will be crucial in this battle.
